Track record
Every issue puts explicit directional calls on the record. Calls on benchmark futures are scored mechanically against the price at maturity (moves inside ±1% count as flat, neither right nor wrong). Ingredient calls with no daily price series are reviewed against later evidence and labelled “LLM-reviewed”. Nothing is edited after the fact.
Hit rate
56%
33 of 59 scored calls since 10 Jul 2026
Price-verified
33/59
12 flat (inside ±1%)
LLM-reviewed
—
0 indeterminate
Open calls (19)
Fishmeal stays bid as Peru's shortfall keeps diverting aquafeed demand to India and Vietnam into autumn.
called 11 Sept 2026 · due 11 Oct 2026 · medium confidence
Chicago wheat drifts lower as harvest pressure and a repeatedly-failing war premium outweigh Baltic-port headlines.
called 11 Sept 2026 · due 25 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · currently +0.0%
Soymeal gives back part of its crude-driven gain as record Brazilian shipments and heavy soybeans reassert once energy stalls.
called 11 Sept 2026 · due 18 Sept 2026 · low confidence · currently +0.0%
Rough rice stays supported as Bangladesh export cuts and falling global production tighten Asian origin values.
called 9 Sept 2026 · due 23 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · currently -0.2%
Soyoil stays firm as record biofuel use and crude strength lift the oil share of the crush.
called 9 Sept 2026 · due 23 Sept 2026 · low confidence · currently +1.4%
Corn drifts lower as record fund longs and a heavy balance sheet outweigh isolated bullish weather headlines.
called 9 Sept 2026 · due 23 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · currently -0.2%
Chicago wheat holds this week's gains as stalled peace talks keep the Black Sea premium in place near-term.
called 9 Sept 2026 · due 16 Sept 2026 · low confidence · currently -1.4%
Paris rapeseed stays supported as dry Ukrainian and EU sowing conditions add a supply-risk premium into autumn.
called 7 Sept 2026 · due 21 Sept 2026 · low confidence · currently +1.0%
Soymeal holds firm as Chinese demand and healthy crush margins support meal against a heavy soybean board.
called 7 Sept 2026 · due 21 Sept 2026 · low confidence · currently -0.3%
Chicago wheat drifts lower over two weeks as harvest pressure and fading war premium outweigh recurring Odesa headlines.
called 7 Sept 2026 · due 21 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · currently +0.1%
Fishmeal stays bid as Peru's closure and structural marine-ingredient shortage keep aquafeed supply tight into autumn.
called 4 Sept 2026 · due 4 Oct 2026 · medium confidence
Soymeal holds firm as Chinese soybean buying and healthy crush margins sustain demand against large fund longs.
called 4 Sept 2026 · due 18 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · currently -0.0%
Paris rapeseed gives back crude-driven gains as record global output and stalling energy prices reassert on the vegoil complex.
called 2 Sept 2026 · due 16 Sept 2026 · low confidence · currently +0.2%
Fishmeal stays bid as Peru's extended anchovy ban and record ocean heat keep marine-ingredient supply tight into autumn.
called 2 Sept 2026 · due 2 Oct 2026 · high confidence
Rough rice stays supported as strong Vietnamese export earnings and El Niño import-demand risk underpin Asian origin values.
called 31 Aug 2026 · due 14 Sept 2026 · low confidence · currently +2.8%
Paris rapeseed stays firm as crude strength and SAF-driven canola demand support the oilshare and crush values.
called 31 Aug 2026 · due 14 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · currently +2.1%
Fishmeal stays bid as El Niño-suppressed catch and China's domestic reliance keep marine-ingredient supply tight.
called 28 Aug 2026 · due 27 Sept 2026 · high confidence
Fishmeal rises further as Peru's north-central closure tightens supply against Chinese aquafeed demand pivoting to Vietnam and India.
called 26 Aug 2026 · due 25 Sept 2026 · high confidence
Fishmeal prices rise further as Peru's early season close and weak global catch tighten supply against Chinese aquafeed demand.
called 21 Aug 2026 · due 20 Sept 2026 · high confidence
Resolved (71)
Soyoil stays soft as ample stocks and a fading biofuel narrative outweigh crude strength.
called 4 Sept 2026 · matured 11 Sept 2026 · low confidence · moved +2.5%
Chicago wheat drifts lower as peace-talk signals and profit-taking overwhelm the fading Black Sea supply premium.
called 4 Sept 2026 · matured 11 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved -2.0%
Chicago wheat drifts lower as the corridor plan and weak Ukrainian basis undercut a speculative-only war premium.
called 2 Sept 2026 · matured 9 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved -3.1%
Paris wheat holds its Danube-strike premium over the coming week unless Turkey's corridor talks produce a concrete reopening.
called 31 Aug 2026 · matured 7 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved -1.9%
Corn holds recent gains on Black Sea and China-demand support, though record fund longs cap further upside.
called 28 Aug 2026 · matured 4 Sept 2026 · low confidence · moved +0.5%
Paris wheat holds most gains as tight EU availability and Black Sea export disruption sustain the premium.
called 28 Aug 2026 · matured 11 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved -0.9%
Chicago wheat holds above $7.40 as Black Sea disruption and Danube ship queues sustain a genuine supply premium into next week.
called 28 Aug 2026 · matured 4 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved -1.8%
Paris rapeseed drifts lower as the crude slump and weak vegoil demand outweigh tight canola carryout.
called 26 Aug 2026 · matured 9 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +4.7%
Corn holds its Black Sea gains near multi-year highs as export risk persists, though crowded fund longs cap further upside.
called 26 Aug 2026 · matured 2 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +6.2%
Soyoil rebounds modestly as the vegoil complex stabilises after this week's sharp slump, aided by biofuel demand narratives.
called 24 Aug 2026 · matured 7 Sept 2026 · low confidence · moved +2.4%
Rough rice stays firm as Indian monsoon tightness and El Niño concerns support Asian origin despite competitive Thai supply.
called 24 Aug 2026 · matured 7 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +3.3%
Paris wheat holds most of its gains as Black Sea export disruption and the truce rejection sustain a genuine supply premium.
called 24 Aug 2026 · matured 7 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +3.4%
Paris rapeseed stays firm on tight canola carryout, strong vegoil demand and a supportive crude complex.
called 21 Aug 2026 · matured 4 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +1.2%
Paris wheat holds its gains as the confirmed Ukrainian export collapse sustains a genuine supply-driven premium into next fortnight.
called 21 Aug 2026 · matured 4 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +9.5%
Chicago corn eases as record fund longs liquidate into benign Iowa weather, crop-tour bears and record Argentine exports.
called 19 Aug 2026 · matured 2 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +15.5%
Rough rice holds its gains as Myanmar, Vietnam and Bangladesh tightness plus El Niño fears sustain Asian origin values.
called 19 Aug 2026 · matured 2 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +8.0%
Paris wheat stays soft as fresh Odesa strikes again fail to build a durable EU war premium into ample new-crop supply.
called 19 Aug 2026 · matured 2 Sept 2026 · medium confidence · moved +13.5%
Rough rice steadies as Indian export tightness supports Asian origin against a soft board despite this week's dip.
called 17 Aug 2026 · matured 31 Aug 2026 · low confidence · moved +11.0%
Soymeal stays heavy as record world meal output and healthy crush supply cap rallies despite bean-side firmness.
called 17 Aug 2026 · matured 31 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +9.2%
Paris wheat holds its gains as the confirmed Ukrainian export collapse and Black Sea disruption sustain a genuine supply-driven premium.
called 17 Aug 2026 · matured 31 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +10.1%
Rough rice holds firm as Indian port congestion and tight Asian supply support origin values.
called 14 Aug 2026 · matured 28 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +7.9%
Corn eases as record fund longs liquidate into benign Iowa weather, despite the WASDE yield trim.
called 14 Aug 2026 · matured 28 Aug 2026 · low confidence · moved +18.9%
Soymeal drifts back down as record world meal output and heavy crush supply outweigh the bean-led bounce.
called 14 Aug 2026 · matured 28 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +7.5%
Paris wheat holds its gains as the confirmed 76% Ukrainian export collapse sustains a genuine supply-driven premium into next week.
called 14 Aug 2026 · matured 21 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +2.6%
Paris rapeseed holds firm on biofuel oil demand and the crude rally, resisting broader vegoil and canola weakness.
called 12 Aug 2026 · matured 26 Aug 2026 · low confidence · moved -0.3%
Soymeal stays heavy as record global meal output and rising stocks outweigh soft Chinese demand and trimmed fund length.
called 12 Aug 2026 · matured 26 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +6.1%
Paris wheat stays soft as the WASDE-eve sell-off confirms the market won't hold a Black Sea war premium into ample new-crop supply.
called 12 Aug 2026 · matured 19 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +4.7%
Chicago corn drifts lower as record fund longs liquidate into benign Iowa weather and post-WASDE supply confirmation.
called 10 Aug 2026 · matured 24 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +11.8%
Soymeal stays soft as record global meal output and heavy US crush outweigh soft Chinese demand and exposed fund length.
called 10 Aug 2026 · matured 24 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +4.0%
Rough rice holds firm near ten-month highs as Thai-China deals and Indian monsoon tightness support Asian origin against a mixed board.
called 10 Aug 2026 · matured 24 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +7.8%
Soymeal drifts lower as record global meal output and heavy crush supply outweigh any bean bounce.
called 7 Aug 2026 · matured 21 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +1.6%
Paris rapeseed holds firm on tight EU old-crop supply and biofuel oil demand, resisting broader vegoil weakness.
called 7 Aug 2026 · matured 21 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +3.5%
Paris wheat stays soft as fresh Black Sea attacks fail to build a war premium into ample new-crop supply.
called 7 Aug 2026 · matured 21 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +3.4%
Rough rice extends higher as Indian and Vietnamese export tightening lifts Asian origin against a soft grain board.
called 7 Aug 2026 · matured 21 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +2.7%
Paris rapeseed holds firm on tight old-crop supply and record biofuel oil demand, resisting the crude slump.
called 5 Aug 2026 · matured 12 Aug 2026 · low confidence · moved +3.1%
Soymeal drifts lower as record global meal output, decade-high Chinese stocks and exposed fund longs outweigh any bean bounce.
called 5 Aug 2026 · matured 19 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +0.7%
Paris wheat keeps easing versus firmer US as fresh blockade headlines fail to rebuild an EU war premium into new-crop supply.
called 5 Aug 2026 · matured 12 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -3.3%
Paris wheat extends lower as a raised Ukrainian harvest and open corridor override Black Sea attack headlines.
called 3 Aug 2026 · matured 10 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +0.1%
Rough rice firms as Vietnamese and Indian export tightening lifts Asian origin against a falling grain board.
called 3 Aug 2026 · matured 17 Aug 2026 · low confidence · moved +0.9%
Chicago corn extends lower as record fund longs liquidate into benign Iowa weather and improving crop ratings.
called 3 Aug 2026 · matured 17 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +5.3%
Soymeal drifts lower as record crush supply and exposed fund length outweigh firm Chinese reserve demand.
called 3 Aug 2026 · matured 17 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -1.1%
Paris wheat holds firm versus US as fresh Black Sea escalation sustains the EU-over-US premium.
called 31 Jul 2026 · matured 7 Aug 2026 · low confidence · moved -4.2%
Soymeal drifts lower as record US crush and exposed fund length outweigh firm Chinese domestic demand.
called 31 Jul 2026 · matured 14 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -2.4%
Chicago corn extends lower as benign Iowa weather, improving ratings and heavy fund longs outweigh Black Sea headlines.
called 31 Jul 2026 · matured 14 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +1.2%
Paris milling wheat keeps unwinding the war premium as the corridor stays partly open despite continued attacks.
called 29 Jul 2026 · matured 12 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -6.4%
Soymeal drifts lower as record crush supply and exposed fund length reassert once the bean bounce fades.
called 29 Jul 2026 · matured 12 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -4.4%
Paris rapeseed extends lower as falling crude and weak canola override the tight EU supply story near-term.
called 29 Jul 2026 · matured 5 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -2.3%
Soymeal eases as record crush supply and exposed fund length reassert once the bean complex cools.
called 27 Jul 2026 · matured 10 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -5.1%
Chicago corn drifts lower as large fund longs liquidate into benign Iowa weather and improving crop ratings.
called 27 Jul 2026 · matured 10 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -3.6%
Paris milling wheat extends its decline as the Black Sea war premium keeps unwinding absent fresh port strikes.
called 27 Jul 2026 · matured 3 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -4.3%
Soymeal drifts lower as record crush supply and exposed fund length reassert once the bean rally cools.
called 24 Jul 2026 · matured 7 Aug 2026 · low confidence · moved -5.3%
MATIF rapeseed stays firm on French heat, tight EU supply and firmer crude, tracking three-year-high canola.
called 24 Jul 2026 · matured 7 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -6.4%
Paris milling wheat holds near this week's highs as suspended Ukrainian port calls sustain the Black Sea war premium.
called 24 Jul 2026 · matured 31 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved -6.2%
Soymeal holds this week's gains near-term as strong crush demand and firm beans outweigh ample supply.
called 22 Jul 2026 · matured 29 Jul 2026 · low confidence · moved -0.6%
Paris corn stays supported on tight EU supply and Black Sea disruption, outperforming CBOT corn.
called 22 Jul 2026 · matured 5 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -3.9%
MATIF milling wheat holds firm as Black Sea shipping attacks and French heat sustain the EU premium.
called 22 Jul 2026 · matured 5 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved -6.1%
Chicago wheat extends higher as still-short funds cover into ongoing Black Sea export disruption.
called 20 Jul 2026 · matured 27 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved -0.6%
Soymeal drifts lower as record crush supply and exposed fund length outweigh firmer beans.
called 20 Jul 2026 · matured 3 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +0.5%
MATIF milling wheat holds near the highs as renewed Odesa strikes sustain the Black Sea war premium.
called 20 Jul 2026 · matured 27 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved -0.9%
Rice firms modestly as higher Indian reserve prices and patchy monsoon offset ample Asian supply.
called 17 Jul 2026 · matured 31 Jul 2026 · low confidence · moved -0.6%
KC hard wheat holds gains as the protein premium over Chicago stays wide on quality-wheat tightness.
called 17 Jul 2026 · matured 24 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved +7.2%
MATIF milling wheat holds this week's Black Sea and heat-driven gains, staying near the highs into next week.
called 17 Jul 2026 · matured 24 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved +5.9%
Soymeal eases as ample crush-driven supply and exposed fund length outweigh firm bean demand.
called 15 Jul 2026 · matured 29 Jul 2026 · low confidence · moved +3.1%
MATIF rapeseed holds firm on French heat and tighter EU supply, decoupling from weaker Canadian canola.
called 15 Jul 2026 · matured 29 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved +1.6%
Corn drifts lower as improving US crop ratings and benign Iowa weather trigger fund long liquidation.
called 15 Jul 2026 · matured 29 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved +4.6%
Soymeal firms with the soy complex as strong crush and fund length outweigh ample production.
called 13 Jul 2026 · matured 20 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved -0.2%
UK feed wheat stays soft, lagging the Continental rally on comfortable domestic supply.
called 13 Jul 2026 · matured 27 Jul 2026 · low confidence · moved +11.0%
Corn extends higher as dry, hot Iowa pollination weather and a tighter WASDE balance sustain fund buying.
called 13 Jul 2026 · matured 27 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved +2.9%
Rice drifts lower as ample Indian and Vietnamese exports outweigh scattered bullish import headlines.
called 10 Jul 2026 · matured 9 Aug 2026 · medium confidence · moved +3.7%
MATIF milling wheat holds this week's gains, supported by a firm EU premium and French heat.
called 10 Jul 2026 · matured 17 Jul 2026 · low confidence · moved +8.5%
Chicago wheat extends higher as heavily short funds cover into Black Sea heat and firm milling demand.
called 10 Jul 2026 · matured 24 Jul 2026 · medium confidence · moved +10.9%