Commodity Pulse

Daily pulse · 2026-07-09

Wheat rallies on heat/dryness; soy complex splits as China buys but oil retreats

Corn

neutral

Corn dips modestly; Panama Canal constraints cloud export logistics but ethanol/DDGS exports rebound

Supply neutral · Demand mixed · Confidence medium

  • ▶CBOT corn fell ~0.80 USc/bu to 431.5 USc/bu; MATIF corn edges up to EUR 232.75/t, suggesting modest European physical support (Futures: corn CBOT last 431.5 (-0.80%), corn MATIF last 232.75 (+0.11%))
  • ▼Panama Canal draft restrictions flagged in USDA grain transportation report, adding friction to US corn export logistics and weighing on competitiveness (News: IndexBox/USDA grain transport report on Panama Canal draft restrictions)
  • ▲US ethanol and DDGS exports rebounded strongly in May, providing demand-side support to corn co-products and underpinning domestic corn use (News: RFD-TV on US ethanol and DDGS export rebound)
  • ▶Managed-money net long in corn is 64,177 contracts (week of 30 Jun), with a +5,844 weekly build — positioning is constructive but building long creates squeeze risk if weather remains benign; US Midwest (Iowa) past 14d precip only 9.8mm with moderate heat (max 29.7°C) (COT: Corn non-commercial net +64,177, weekly change +5,844; Weather: Iowa past14d precip 9.8mm, next7d 6.9mm, max 29.7°C)

Changed: First pulse - no prior day comparison.

Watch: Iowa/Illinois crop conditions in next USDA Crop Progress report; Panama Canal water levels and transit slot availability; Ukraine export corridor volumes — a competing supplier to EU buyers

Wheat (CBOT / MATIF / UK Feed)

bullish

Wheat firms across all benchmarks; French/UK crop heat stress and Pakistan production cuts support upside

Supply tightening · Demand neutral · Confidence medium

  • ▲CBOT SRW wheat +1.97 USc/bu to 619.75; KC HRW +1.39 to 654.25; MATIF milling wheat +0.24% to EUR 205/t; UK feed wheat +0.28% to GBP 180.5/t — broad-based buying across origins (Futures: wheat SRW 619.75 (+1.97%), wheat HRW 654.25 (+1.39%), MATIF 205.00 (+0.24%), UK feed wheat 180.5 (+0.28%))
  • ▲France Centre (Orléans) has had only 3.1mm rain past 14 days with zero forecast next 7 days and max temps 31.7°C — crop filling stress at a critical stage for MATIF-deliverable quality wheat (Weather: France Centre past14d precip 3.1mm, next7d 0mm, max temp 31.7°C)
  • ▲UK East Anglia virtually dry (0.6mm past 14d, 0.3mm next 7d) with max 27.8°C — UK harvest quality risk adds floor to GBP feed wheat (Weather: UK East Anglia past14d precip 0.6mm, next7d 0.3mm, max 27.8°C)
  • ▲Pakistan wheat and rice production forecasts cut on heat stress, storms and water shortages — reduces a competing export origin and may lift import demand; managed money in SRW remains deeply short (-55,004 contracts) creating a covering rally risk on further bullish news (News: IndexBox on Pakistan wheat/rice forecast cuts; COT: SRW non-commercial net -55,004 (week of 30 Jun))

Changed: First pulse - no prior day comparison.

Watch: France/Germany crop condition updates as harvest approaches; Ukraine export corridor buyer data — identified major buyers could set price floor; MATIF-CBOT spread at USD 6.58/t: watch for EU export competitiveness shift if USD weakens further

Soybeans

bullish

China trade thaw lifts soybean demand outlook; COT long position large but partially trimmed

Supply neutral · Demand tightening · Confidence medium

  • ▲China resumes soybean purchases as trade thaw continues — a direct demand catalyst for US and South American origination; a strengthening BRL (USD/BRL 5.12, down 0.56%) slightly reduces the competitiveness discount of Brazilian soybeans for Chinese buyers (News: Farm Policy News on China soybean purchases; FX: USD/BRL 5.1197 (-0.56%))
  • ▼CBOT soybeans dipped 0.90% to 1,181.5 USc/bu intraday — likely managed-money profit-taking after last week's large net long (76,627 contracts), which fell by 24,217 on the week of 30 Jun, suggesting some position reduction (Futures: soybeans 1181.5 (-0.90%); COT: soybeans non-commercial net +76,627, weekly change -24,217)
  • ▲US Midwest (Iowa) sub-optimal rainfall (9.8mm/14d, 6.9mm next 7d) with above-average heat (29.7°C max) during pod-fill period introduces modest yield uncertainty (Weather: Iowa past14d precip 9.8mm, next7d 6.9mm, avg max 29.7°C)

Changed: First pulse - no prior day comparison.

Watch: Weekly USDA export sales report (Thursday) for China booking confirmation; Iowa/Illinois soybean crop condition ratings; BRL trajectory — a firmer BRL reduces Brazilian price competitiveness vs US

Soybean Meal

bullish

Soymeal gains on record crush margins and China demand; fishmeal crisis may redirect protein buying

Supply loosening · Demand tightening · Confidence medium

  • ▲CBOT soymeal +1.35% to USD 315.4/short ton; board crush margin at USD 2.67/bu provides strong incentive to crush, supporting bean demand and meal supply — but record margins also signal current meal demand tightness (Futures: soymeal 315.4 (+1.35%); Derived: board crush margin 2.67 USD/bu)
  • ▲US crushing accelerates on record margins per news — this loosens meal supply over time but confirms near-term demand strength that is driving the margin (News: IndexBox on US soybean crushing acceleration and record margins)
  • ▲Fishmeal cost crisis due to anchovy shortage may redirect aquafeed and livestock formulations toward soybean meal as a protein substitute, tightening demand further (News: Fish Farmer on fishmeal cost crisis from anchovy shortage)
  • ▶Managed money in soymeal remains net long at 48,686 contracts but trimmed by 10,335 in the week of 30 Jun — partial unwinding of a crowded long reduces squeeze risk but long bias remains intact (COT: soymeal non-commercial net +48,686, weekly change -10,335)

Changed: First pulse - no prior day comparison.

Watch: Weekly crush pace data to assess whether supply response is catching up with margins; Indian soymeal export volumes — good monsoon coverage supports Indian soy crop and potential future export competition; Fishmeal price trajectory on Peru anchovy quota decisions

Soybean Oil

bearish

Soybean oil falls 1.3% as crude drops sharply; biofuel demand link drags vegetable oils lower

Supply loosening · Demand neutral · Confidence medium

  • ▼CBOT soybean oil -1.29% to 68.62 USc/lb, tracking WTI crude's sharp -2.61% fall to USD 71.6/bbl; lower crude reduces the biofuel blending value of vegetable oils, directly pressuring soyoil (Futures: soyoil 68.62 (-1.29%); Futures: WTI crude 71.6 (-2.61%))
  • ▼Managed money in soyoil remains very large net long at 99,449 contracts (largest in the soy complex) but trimmed by 9,726 in week of 30 Jun — a crowded long with crude headwinds creates downside risk if crude continues to slide (COT: soyoil non-commercial net +99,449, weekly change -9,726)
  • ▼Record crush margins incentivise higher crushing volumes, expanding soyoil supply alongside meal — this further loosens oil supply over the near term (Derived: board crush margin 2.67 USD/bu; News: IndexBox on US crush acceleration)

Changed: First pulse - no prior day comparison.

Watch: WTI crude direction — key driver of biodiesel/renewable diesel blending economics; US biofuel policy (RVO/RFS) announcements; Soyoil COT long: at 99,449 contracts, any further crude weakness could trigger forced liquidation

Rapeseed

mixed

Rapeseed slips 0.76% as canola bears pile in and crude falls, but EU harvest risks offer partial support

Supply loosening · Demand neutral · Confidence medium

  • ▼MATIF rapeseed -0.76% to EUR 519/t; ICE canola profit-taking and StoneX bearish canola supply outlook weigh on the complex; Canadian supply pressure a negative fundamental signal (Futures: rapeseed MATIF 519 (-0.76%); News: Western Producer on canola profit-taking; StoneX on bearish canola supply outlook)
  • ▼WTI crude -2.61% reduces biofuel premium — rapeseed oil's renewable diesel/HVO feedstock value diminishes, removing a key demand-side prop (Futures: WTI crude 71.6 (-2.61%))
  • ▲France Centre virtually dry (3.1mm/14d, 0mm next 7d, 31.7°C max) — MATIF-deliverable rapeseed crop under moisture stress; Romanian 2026/27 harvest pressure but partially offset by global market support per UkrAgroConsult (Weather: France Centre past14d precip 3.1mm, next7d 0mm, max 31.7°C; News: UkrAgroConsult on Romanian rapeseed)
  • ▶Farmers Weekly notes pressure easing on oilseed rape amid global conditions — ambiguous but suggests market is not in runaway bear mode; harvest supply arrival timing will be key (News: Farmers Weekly on easing pressure on oilseed rape market)

Changed: First pulse - no prior day comparison.

Watch: French rapeseed harvest outcome and quality reports (imminent); Crude oil direction — biofuel premium is the swing factor; ICE canola price action as a leading indicator for MATIF direction

Feed & By-products

DDGS exports rebound in May; fishmeal crisis may redirect protein demand toward soy-based alternatives

  • US ethanol and DDGS exports rebounded strongly in May per RFD-TV, indicating recovered downstream corn processing demand and supportive co-product values.
  • A fishmeal cost crisis driven by Peruvian anchovy shortages is raising aquaculture and livestock feed input costs globally; this may increase substitution toward soybean meal and other plant proteins in formulations (Fish Farmer).
  • Corn MATIF at EUR 232.75/t and the Panama Canal freight constraint (USDA transport report) could raise delivered cost of US-origin DDGS to European buyers, partially offsetting the export rebound.
  • AMS feedstuff prices unavailable — feedstuffs array is empty in today's data feed; no USDA AMS spot price data for DDG, corn gluten meal, or other feedstuffs available for this pulse.

AMS feedstuff prices unavailable — feedstuffs array returned empty; no spot price data for DDGS, corn gluten meal, or soyhulls. News-based signals only.

Organic Watch

No organic price data available today

  • No organic grain or oilseed price data is available in today's data feed.
  • India monsoon improvement (deficit cut to 23%, full national coverage now reported) is a broadly positive signal for Indian organic production prospects, though specific organic premiums cannot be assessed without pricing data.

Organic prices unavailable — organicPrices array returned empty. AMS organic report is bi-weekly (Wednesdays); no recent organic price data loaded for this pulse.

Freight & Logistics

Freight signals contradictory: Maersk/Hapag Suez resumption vs red-hot container market; BDI at 2,910

  • Baltic Dry Index stands at 2,910 as of 9 July — indicating firm bulk freight demand relevant to grain and oilseed shipments; however, no prior history in the system yet to establish a percentile context (first observation).
  • Drewry World Container Index at USD 4,639/40ft — a high level that raises landed cost for containerised commodities (organic grains, specialty feed ingredients, smaller parcel cargoes) moving from origins such as India, Black Sea, and the Americas to European buyers.
  • Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd resuming Suez Canal sailings (MSN) should progressively reduce transit times vs Cape route, easing container supply tightness and potentially softening spot freight rates in coming weeks — a bullish signal for importers.
  • Scan Global Logistics describes the ocean freight market as 'red hot' with rates rallying across major lanes — this contradicts the directional implication of Suez resumption, suggesting the market has not yet repriced on the news; physical traders should lock in forward slots where possible.

BDI and Drewry WCI both live as of 2026-07-09. No historical percentile context yet (1 observation each). Specific grain route rates (e.g. USGC-Rotterdam Panamax, Paranaguá-Rotterdam) not available in current feed.

Macro

EUR/USD at 1.1429 (+0.11%) and GBP/USD at 1.3411 (+0.16%) mean European and UK buyers face incrementally higher effective costs on USD-denominated imports (CBOT-priced grains, South American soybeans) — partially offsetting any CBOT price dips. The US Dollar Index at 100.94 (-0.12%) is mildly soft, reflecting broad risk-off sentiment amplified by WTI crude's sharp -2.61% fall to USD 71.6/bbl, which reduces energy and biofuel support for vegetable oils and limits freight cost uplift. Overall risk tone is cautious: lower crude is a headwind for oilseed products linked to renewable fuel demand, while a softer dollar is a partial offset for non-US commodity producers, keeping the BRL slightly firmer and marginally reducing Brazil's price competitiveness for EU soy buyers.

Calendar

  • USDA Weekly Export Sales report — Thursday 10 July (watch for China soybean and wheat bookings)
  • CFTC COT positioning data — Friday 11 July (for week ending 8 July)
  • WASDE report — next release approx. 11 July 2026 (monthly; critical for balance sheet updates on wheat, corn, soybeans)
  • AMS Organic Grain Price Report — next bi-weekly release Wednesday (confirm exact date; last data not loaded)
  • MATIF August rapeseed futures — monitor open interest rollover as harvest approaches
  • USDA Crop Progress report — Monday 13 July (US corn/soybean condition ratings in context of Midwest dryness)

Market board

Corn (CBOT)

USc/bu

431.5

-0.8%

Wheat SRW (CBOT)

USc/bu

619.75

+2.0%

Wheat HRW (KC)

USc/bu

654.25

+1.4%

Soybeans (CBOT)

USc/bu

1,181.5

-0.9%

Soybean Meal (CBOT)

USD/short ton

315.4

+1.3%

Soybean Oil (CBOT)

USc/lb

68.62

-1.3%

WTI Crude

USD/bbl

71.6

-2.6%

Milling Wheat (MATIF)

EUR/t

205

+0.2%

Corn (MATIF)

EUR/t

232.75

+0.1%

Rapeseed (MATIF)

EUR/t

519

-0.8%

UK Feed Wheat (ICE)

GBP/t

180.5

+0.3%

EUR/USD

1.14

+0.1%

GBP/USD

1.34

+0.2%

USD/BRL

5.12

-0.6%

US Dollar Index

index

100.94

-0.1%

Baltic Dry Index

index

2,910

percentile builds as history accumulates (1 obs so far)

Drewry World Container Index (composite)

USD per 40ft

4,639

percentile builds as history accumulates (1 obs so far)

Derived indicators

  • Soybean board crush margin: 2.67 USD/bu0.022*ZM + 0.11*ZL - ZS/100. Higher margin = incentive to crush = more meal/oil supply, more bean demand.
  • KC HRW - Chicago SRW spread: 34.5 USc/buProtein premium; widening = quality wheat tightness.
  • MATIF - CBOT wheat spread (USD/t): 6.58 USD/tEU wheat premium/discount to US; drives EU import/export competitiveness.