Commodity Pulse

End of week · 2026-08-21

Grains rise on Black Sea shock; fishmeal tightening is the real story

Wheat, corn and Paris grain all gained as Ukraine's confirmed export collapse (~2.5Mt delayed) locked in a lasting price premium. Our bullish Paris wheat call proved right; our corn-down call proved wrong. Key development: Peru closed its anchovy season early, tightening fishmeal supply against firm Chinese demand.

Moves since last issue

Percent moves by contract since last issue

Price board — 30 days

Wheat — CBOT

front month (cont.) · USc/bu

702.8 +2.8%

Wheat — CBOT 30-day prices

Milling Wheat — MATIF

front month (cont.) · EUR/t

227.3 +1.8%

Milling Wheat — MATIF 30-day prices

Feed Wheat — UK (ICE)

front month (cont.) · GBP/t

205.8 +1.4%

Feed Wheat — UK (ICE) 30-day prices

Corn — CBOT

front month (cont.) · USc/bu

476.3 +2.5%

Corn — CBOT 30-day prices

Soybeans — CBOT

front month (cont.) · USc/bu

1,228.5 +0.4%

Soybeans — CBOT 30-day prices

Soybean Meal — CBOT

front month (cont.) · USD/short ton

322.4 +0.8%

Soybean Meal — CBOT 30-day prices

Soybean Oil — CBOT

front month (cont.) · USc/lb

70.76 +1.2%

Soybean Oil — CBOT 30-day prices

Rapeseed — MATIF

front month (cont.) · EUR/t

544.8 -0.2%

Rapeseed — MATIF 30-day prices

Rough Rice — CBOT

front month (cont.) · USD/cwt

14.57 -0.2%

Rough Rice — CBOT 30-day prices

What's moving & why

Paris wheat's war premium finally sticks

bullishstrong evidence

After weeks of no reaction, markets have now priced the Ukrainian export collapse — roughly 2.5Mt of wheat delayed, with August flows at a fifth of normal. Seven independent sources confirm the disruption. Gains should hold into next week, with weekend strike news a live risk.

For buyers: Dip-buying window is closing; cover near-term wheat needs now.

Sources: S&P Global

Corn rally undercuts our liquidation bear call

bearishmoderate evidence

Chicago corn reclaimed $5/bu, pulled up by Black Sea wheat tightness rather than any US-specific news. Speculative money managers remain heavily long at 245k net contracts and did not exit as we expected. Weak Chinese demand and slowing Brazilian exports are genuine headwinds but markets ignored them this week.

For buyers: Our corn-down calls are offside; do not count on a near-term price drop.

Sources: AgroLatam

Rapeseed holds firm as canola and vegoil rally

bullishstrong evidence

Paris rapeseed was near-flat on the week but remains elevated after canola jumped roughly $58/t in a fortnight on tight ending stocks and strong demand, confirmed by four sources. Firm crude oil and soyoil support the whole vegetable-oil complex. Australia may lift exports to partly fill the EU gap over the medium term.

For buyers: Oilseed strength keeps rapeseed-meal costs supported; no relief signal yet.

Sources: The Weekly Times

Ingredient desk

Fishmeal tightening as Peru shuts season early

bullishstrong evidence

Peru formally ended its first 2026 anchovy season early on biological grounds. IFFO, confirmed by four sources, reports global fishmeal and fish oil output staying weak under El Niño pressure. Austevoll's Q2 volume miss confirms the shortfall. Chinese aquafeed demand is pressing an already tight market — this is a genuine supply squeeze.

For buyers: Lock fishmeal cover now; expect soy protein concentrate and guar to face substitution demand.

Sources: Undercurrent News

Amino-acid prices under pressure at source

bearishweak evidence

Xinghu Technology's H1 net profit fell over 90% as amino-acid and MSG prices collapsed — one unverified source, treat cautiously. It fits a broader pattern of ample Chinese lysine and threonine capacity keeping additive prices soft throughout the year.

For buyers: No urgency to forward-cover lysine or threonine; Chinese supply caps prices.

Sources: finance.biggo.com

DDGS and corn byproducts firm with the board

watchstrong evidence

DDGS is trading at $160–180/t, with high-protein lots reaching $264. Corn gluten feed holds $200–220/t. As corn rises on Black Sea tightness, byproduct price floors lift with it. Corn gluten meal — used in premium aqua and pet-food diets — held its $475–575/t range; no relief for buyers of that grade.

For buyers: Downside is gone; book DDGS and gluten feed on any price dip.

Sources: USDA AMS Feedstuff Prices

Pet-food fats and tallow tightening

bullishmoderate evidence

Brazilian tallow prices are rising on tighter domestic supply and limited exports, per Fastmarkets. Firm crude and vegetable-oil markets reinforce the whole rendered-fat complex. For pet-food formulators, this pairs with corn gluten meal strength to lift both protein and fat input costs simultaneously.

For buyers: Fat and animal-protein inputs are biased higher; secure Q4 tallow needs early.

Sources: Fastmarkets

Organic corner

Organic soybean premium stays extreme

watchstrong evidence

USDA AMS data (03 Aug) shows food-grade organic soybeans at $21–26/bu and organic soymeal near $920/t — roughly triple conventional meal. Organic corn holds $10–16/bu. Thin domestic supply against steady demand keeps these gaps wide; nothing this week narrowed them.

For buyers: Premiums are sticky; maximise conventional ingredients wherever certification allows.

Sources: USDA AMS Organic Grain Report

On the record

  • Milling Wheat (MATIF) higherParis wheat holds its gains as the confirmed Ukrainian export collapse sustains a genuine supply-driven premium into next fortnight. — by 2026-09-04 · medium confidence · price-verified
  • Rapeseed (MATIF) higherParis rapeseed stays firm on tight canola carryout, strong vegoil demand and a supportive crude complex. — by 2026-09-04 · medium confidence · price-verified
  • Fishmeal (aquafeed) higherFishmeal prices rise further as Peru's early season close and weak global catch tighten supply against Chinese aquafeed demand. — by 2026-09-20 · high confidence · reviewed at maturity

Track record: 20 of 34 directional calls right since 10 Jul 2026. Full track record

Supply & demand — USDA WASDE

World ending stocks by commodity
  • Wheat (2026/27 proj.): Production down 24Mt year-on-year; falling stocks now support Black Sea-driven price strength.
  • Corn (2026/27 proj.): Output and ending stocks both cut sharply — tighter than the market's bearish view assumed.
  • Soybeans (2026/27 proj.): Record production but stocks barely lower; ample supply caps upside despite firm Chinese buying.
  • Soybean Meal (2026/27 proj.): Record output and slightly higher stocks keep meal well supplied — underpinning our meal-down calls.

Source: USDA WASDE world balance sheets (million tonnes).

Weather watch

Brazil Mato Grosso

Zero rain in 14 days, average highs 36.1°C

Hot and dry ahead of soy planting; delays would push back the following corn crop window.

India Madhya Pradesh

224.7mm past-14-day rain, 93mm more forecast

Heavy monsoon rains risk crop quality and are lifting rice export prices.

Source: Open-Meteo, key growing regions.

Freight & logistics

Baltic Dry Index

2,791 -2.5%

Drewry World Container Index

4,526 +4.3%

Container rates rose again (Drewry composite +4.3%) as carriers cut Asia-US capacity — raising landed costs for Asian container shipments of guar, gluten and additives. Bulk grain freight held steady as the Baltic Dry index eased slightly. Net: containerised Asian ingredient costs biased higher next week.

Sources: Baltic Exchange via Trading Economics · Drewry World Container Index

Macro in one line

The dollar weakened this week — EUR/USD near 1.169, GBP/USD 1.364 — trimming the euro and sterling cost of USD-priced imports. A modest tailwind for landed costs.

Calendar

  • USDA Export Sales — Thursday 27 Aug
  • CFTC Commitments of Traders — Friday 28 Aug
  • USDA AMS Organic Grain report — next bi-weekly update
  • Sept CBOT grain contract deliveries approaching
  • Next WASDE — ~12 Sep