Complex slides; Black Sea war premium keeps fading

MATIF rapeseed took the hardest hit alongside ICE canola, both pulled down by falling crude oil and hopes for Middle East de-escalation — confirmed across five trade outlets. Our earlier call for rapeseed to hold firm on French heat and tight EU supply is now wrong: outside-market forces are overriding tight fundamentals.

For buyers: Rapemeal buyers get relief; crude now sets the floor, not supply.

Sources: The Western Producer

Corn was the only market to hold, edging higher after USDA cut corn and soybean condition ratings on Midwest heat — reported by three outlets. Our open call was for corn to drift lower on mild Iowa weather; the ratings cut contradicts that. Fourteen days of 31 C heat and just 8 mm of rain in Iowa keeps yield risk alive in both directions.

For buyers: Corn-gluten and DDGS buyers: cheap-corn thesis holds but weather could change it fast.

Sources: Farm Progress

Paris milling wheat extended its slide. Black Sea shipping attacks continue — four outlets confirm the corridor is disrupted and a cargo ship sank off Odesa — yet prices fell anyway. When bad news stops lifting a market, it signals that speculative buyers who had priced in war risk are now stepping back. Without a genuine supply shock, that retreat continues.

For buyers: EU wheat-based feed buyers: keep waiting; the trend is down while the corridor stays partly open.

Sources: World Grain

Dried distillers grains span roughly $140–263/ton depending on protein and freight, tracking cheap corn. World corn stocks are down year-on-year but still ample, keeping DDGS the best value among energy-protein co-products. The weather-driven corn wobble is a near-term risk, not a trend change.

For buyers: Lock physical DDGS coverage now; weather could add a premium soon.

Sources: USDA AMS Feedstuff Prices

Soymeal fell with beans as the whole complex retreated. A crush margin near $2.61/bu still makes heavy processing profitable, meaning ample meal supply ahead — a record-crush pace confirmed by multiple sources. Speculative buyers hold large positions in meal that become a source of selling pressure once beans stop bouncing on weather scares.

For buyers: Protein buyers: meal has further to ease; stagger purchases rather than covering forward now.

Sources: Agrolatam

Peru's fishmeal exports rose 52% year-on-year in May, per the central bank — one source, so treat cautiously, but it fits a strong anchovy season and points to greater availability. If confirmed, it caps fishmeal prices and reduces pressure to substitute soy protein concentrate.

For buyers: Aquafeed buyers: expect softer fishmeal offers into Q3; delay non-urgent forward cover.

Sources: Agencia Andina

Canola meal spans roughly $257–320/ton, well under soymeal's $334+ range. Falling rapeseed futures should cheapen rapemeal further into the EU. Ukrainian port attacks may push more rapeseed toward domestic crushing rather than export (single trade source), which would add EU meal supply.

For buyers: Ruminant and some mono-gastric rations: rapemeal discount to soymeal is widening — switch where specs allow.

Sources: USDA AMS Feedstuff Prices · АПК-Інформ

Organic feed corn sits around $10–16/bu against roughly $4.59 conventional — a several-fold premium that held steady in the latest report. Organic soybean at $22–27/bu shows the same wide spread. No new supply or certification shock; premiums reflect structural scarcity, not fresh pressure.

For buyers: Organic buyers: no rush — conventional weakness is not flowing through to organic yet.

Sources: USDA AMS Organic Grain Report