Black Sea strikes flip the wheat story bullish into the weekend

Russian port strikes and Ukrainian drone attacks knocked out roughly a quarter to a third of Ukrainian and Russian export capacity. Chicago and KC wheat jumped. The KC price premium over Chicago widened — a sign quality milling wheat is tightening fastest. Speculative funds that had been heavily sold short were forced to buy back positions, amplifying the move. Our open call for higher SRW wheat is playing out.

For buyers: Cover near-term milling-wheat needs before the weekend, not after.

Sources: Financial Times · Kpler

The war premium that lifted wheat did not extend to corn. Iowa's past fortnight was warm but not damaging; light rain is forecast and there is no pollination scare. Speculative funds hold a large net bought position in corn, which limits further upside: improving crop prospects encourage those funds to sell. WASDE gave brief support before profit-taking pulled prices back.

For buyers: Corn-linked buyers — gluten, DDGS, broken rice — have no urgency; the supply picture is comfortable.

Sources: Pro Farmer

MATIF milling wheat surged, extending last week's move and confirming our open call for higher prices. Orleans averaged 33.7C over the past fortnight with no rain forecast, adding EU crop stress on top of the Black Sea premium. Rapeseed firmed on the same heat plus tighter EU supply, holding up despite mixed Canadian canola signals — consistent with our open rapeseed-up call.

For buyers: EU-origin feed wheat and rapeseed-derived inputs will land dearer; the premium looks durable.

Sources: CBOT/MATIF data

Meal rose modestly alongside a firm crushing margin near $2.97/bu — the profit from processing beans into meal and oil. That margin is high enough to keep plants running at full capacity, keeping meal supply ample. Speculative funds hold a large bought position in meal. New-crop global meal production is a record with stocks rebuilt. Our two open meal calls point in opposite directions; the near-term up call is winning.

For buyers: Protein buyers: dips are buying opportunities near-term, but record supply limits sustained rallies.

Sources: WASDE world balance · CFTC / derived crush

A single unverified source reports Indian oilmeal exports fell 21.5% in April on shipping difficulties. Treat the figure cautiously, but it aligns with a patchy monsoon (kharif sowing reportedly down 16%) and rising Indian domestic prices — all pointing to less Indian soymeal available to EU importers this season. Non-GMO Indian SBM buyers should identify replacement origins now.

For buyers: Indian-origin meal buyers: line up alternative origins early; availability looks tighter, not cheaper.

Sources: Whalesbook

Two trade sources flag a strong El Niño outlook raising salmon-farming costs and feed-input demand, firming fishmeal prices. This follows last issue's record Peru-to-China fishmeal print. Warm-water anomalies suppress Peruvian anchovy catches, tightening the fishmeal market that soy protein concentrate and guar meal must substitute against.

For buyers: Aquafeed buyers: fishmeal stays firm-to-higher; lock in plant-protein substitutes now while spreads favour them.

Sources: Salmon Business / Aquafeed.com

Corroborated major reporting confirms the India–UK trade agreement is now in effect, granting zero-duty access for Indian goods entering the UK. For broken rice and other Indian pet-food and feed inputs, this is a structural cost improvement that offsets firmer Indian export prices driven by higher government reserve pricing and monsoon uncertainty.

For buyers: UK buyers of Indian broken rice: tariff relief improves landed cost even as origin prices rise.

Sources: The Economic Times